What move does the options market price into Collegium Pharmaceutical's report?

Implied ±17.0%, either direction.

How often does Collegium Pharmaceutical move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

COLLNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc (COLL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

23.66

−0.07 · −0.30%

post 23.66 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open23.99Volume524,868Mkt cap$772.5MP/E15.67EPS1.51

Day23.60 – 24.0713%52-wk21.43 – 50.798%

COLL

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±17.0%implied · straddle

19.6927.77

spot 23.73exp Nov 20ATM strike 22.5ATM straddle 4.75IV 117%

Nov 3 closethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Today

before open

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−18.55%

vs ±12.2% implied · ×1.52

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.14%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

278 managers

Top fund weight

0.04%

COLL weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.7%
avg realized: ±8.7%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±9.4%▼−7.35%×0.78

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±13.8%▲+2.22%×0.16

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±10.4%▲+5.94%×0.57

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±10.3%▲+10.72%×1.04

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±9.4%▲+13.42%×1.43

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±7.7%▼−3.34%×0.44

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±12.6%▲+7.72%×0.61

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±12.2%▼−18.55%×1.52

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±12.2%▼−18.55%×1.52

May '26±12.6%▲+7.72%×0.61

Q1 FY26±7.7%▼−3.34%×0.44

Q3 FY25±9.4%▲+13.42%×1.43

Aug '25±10.3%▲+10.72%×1.04

May '25±10.4%▲+5.94%×0.57

2 older reports

Feb '25±13.8%▲+2.22%×0.16

Nov '24±9.4%▼−7.35%×0.78

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.17OI · 3 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

300%Nov 2015d179+5%

1760%Dec 1843d0.762330%0.76

650%Mar 19134d1.1855+4%1.18

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d300%179+5%0.17

Dec 1843d1760%2330%0.76

Mar 19134d650%55+4%1.18

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.0%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−7.53%as filednet margin · revenue +3.29% QoQ · +6.32% YoY

Revenue$200M+3.29%

Gross profit$110M55.18%−5.93%

Operating income$4M1.85%−88.03%

Pre-tax income−$14M−172.21%

Net income−$15M−7.53%−203.83%

Cost of revenue$90M+17.45%

Operating expenses$107M+23.44%

Tax$2M−64.21%

Other expense−$17M−41.74%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.76· ±3.1% vs ±1.8% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.1%4 of 10×1.76

NFPjobs report±2.3%5 of 10×1.29

FOMCrate decision±1.6%13 of 24×0.91

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%6 of 12×0.75

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%5 of 10×0.63

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%7 of 19×0.59

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%7 of 19×0.52

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.46 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.46	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	0.40	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	0.84	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod