How often does CME move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CMENasdaqSecurity & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services

CME Group Inc. (CME) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

308.19

+4.13 · +1.36%

post 308.31 +0.04%

Closed19:23 ET

Open306.49Volume1.7MMkt cap$108.8BP/E25.09EPS12.29Div yield3.72%

Day301.18 – 309.0091%52-wk217.29 – 318.3590%

CME

CME Group Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 3

before open · in 91 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.16%

vs ±2.6% implied · ×0.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

4hGNW · customerGenworth posts Q3 net loss of $41M; adjusted operating income excluding Closed Block $102M
14hFLUT · customerFlutter posts Q3 net loss of $1,148 million, revenue $3,874 million
6dCFR · customerCullen/Frost Bankers to transfer primary listings to Texas Stock Exchange, trading shifts Nov. 12

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.18%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,706 managers

Top fund weight

1.05%

CME weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

CME (CME) is expected to report on Feb 3 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.3%
avg realized: ±1.6%

Feb 12 '25Feb 12 '25confirmed±2.6%▲+2.99%×1.14

Apr 23 '25Apr 23 '25confirmed±3.9%▼−1.54%×0.39

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±4.3%▲+0.67%×0.16

Oct 22 '25Oct 22 '25confirmed—▼−0.30%—

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+0.53%×0.18

Q1 FY26Apr 22 '26confirmed±2.8%▲+0.46%×0.16

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+5.00%×1.31

Q3 FY26Oct 21 '26confirmed±2.6%▲+0.16%×0.06

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q3 FY26±2.6%▲+0.16%×0.06

Q2 FY26±3.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 2 close

1.53OI · 8 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

1,867+302%Nov 62d0.822,280+324%0.82

314−57%Nov 139d0.61512+18%0.61

3,470+4%Nov 2016d1.083,213+9%1.08

394+22%Nov 2723d0.80491+22%0.80

10—Dec 430d0.10100—0.10

6,894+1%Dec 1844d1.394,962+1%1.39

6,9620%Jan 1572d1.026,856+7%1.02

report · Feb 3 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 62d1,867+302%2,280+324%0.82

Nov 139d314−57%512+18%0.61

Nov 2016d3,470+4%3,213

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

59.68%as filednet margin · revenue +1.82% QoQ · +12.99% YoY

Revenue

$1.7B+1.82% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.5B+2.06% QoQ

86.51% margin

Operating income

$1.1B+3.10% QoQ

65.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+2.04% QoQ

Net income

$1.0B−0.47% QoQ

59.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$234M+0.34% QoQ

Operating expenses

$362M−1.09% QoQ

Other operating $185M

SG&A $93M

Depreciation $27M

Other operating $56M

Tax

$318M+11.19% QoQ

Other income

$213M−3.26% QoQ

Revenue$1.7B+1.82%

Gross profit

$1.5B+2.06%

86.51% margin

Operating income

$1.1B+3.10%

65.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+2.04%

Net income

$1.0B−0.47%

59.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$234M+0.34%

Operating expenses

$362M−1.09%

Other operating $185M

SG&A $93M

Depreciation $27M

Other income$213M−3.26%

Tax$318M+11.19%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.45· ±1.4% vs ±0.9% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.4%5 of 10×1.45

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%6 of 10×1.40

FOMCrate decision±1.1%9 of 24×1.16

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%4 of 12×1.02

NFPjobs report±0.9%4 of 10×1.00

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%12 of 19×0.98

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.8%14 of 19×0.87

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.89 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 21 '26 · confirmed	2.89	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	2.88	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 22 '26 · confirmed	3.18	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod