How often does CME move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CMENasdaqSecurity & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services

CME Group Inc. (CME) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

306.80

−0.44 · −0.14%

post 305.93 −0.28%

Closed16:06 ET

Open301.45Volume1.5MMkt cap$109.5BP/E24.89EPS12.29Div yield3.69%

Day301.24 – 308.2367%52-wk217.29 – 318.3588%

CME

CME Group Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 3

before open · in 88 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.16%

vs ±2.6% implied · ×0.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dDKNG · customerDraftKings’ expensive bet on prediction markets is crushing its stock
1dFCNCA · customerFirst Citizens reports Q3 net income $606 million, EPS $51.23
2dGNW · customerGenworth posts net loss of $41 million in 3Q; 9M net income $53 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.18%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26130d lag

1,706 managers

Top fund weight

1.05%

CME weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

CME (CME) is expected to report on Feb 3 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.3%
avg realized: ±1.6%

Feb 12 '25Feb 12 '25confirmed±2.6%▲+2.99%×1.14

Apr 23 '25Apr 23 '25confirmed±3.9%▼−1.54%×0.39

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±4.3%▲+0.67%×0.16

Oct 22 '25Oct 22 '25confirmed—▼−0.30%—

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+0.53%×0.18

Q1 FY26Apr 22 '26confirmed±2.8%▲+0.46%×0.16

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+5.00%×1.31

Q3 FY26Oct 21 '26confirmed±2.6%▲+0.16%×0.06

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q3 FY26±2.6%▲+0.16%×0.06

Q2 FY26±3.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 5 close

1.41OI · 8 expiries · Nov 5 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

691+81%Nov 136d0.93747+43%0.93

3,4870%Nov 2013d1.083,2220%1.08

3930%Nov 2720d0.785060%0.78

100%Dec 427d0.09112+12%0.09

62—Dec 1134d1.0758—1.07

6,8830%Dec 1841d1.454,754+1%1.45

7,002+1%Jan 1569d1.016,9070%1.01

report · Feb 3 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 136d691+81%747+43%0.93

Nov 2013d3,4870%3,2220%1.08

Nov 2720d3930%506

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

59.68%as filednet margin · revenue +1.82% QoQ · +12.99% YoY

Revenue

$1.7B+1.82% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.5B+2.06% QoQ

86.51% margin

Operating income

$1.1B+3.10% QoQ

65.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+2.04% QoQ

Net income

$1.0B−0.47% QoQ

59.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$234M+0.34% QoQ

Operating expenses

$362M−1.09% QoQ

Other operating $185M

SG&A $93M

Depreciation $27M

Other operating $56M

Tax

$318M+11.19% QoQ

Other income

$213M−3.26% QoQ

Revenue$1.7B+1.82%

Gross profit

$1.5B+2.06%

86.51% margin

Operating income

$1.1B+3.10%

65.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+2.04%

Net income

$1.0B−0.47%

59.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$234M+0.34%

Operating expenses

$362M−1.09%

Other operating $185M

SG&A $93M

Depreciation $27M

Other income$213M−3.26%

Tax$318M+11.19%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.51· ±1.4% vs ±1.0% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%7 of 11×1.51

PPIproducer prices±1.4%6 of 11×1.43

FOMCrate decision±1.1%10 of 24×1.10

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%4 of 12×1.00

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%13 of 20×0.96

NFPjobs report±0.9%4 of 11×0.94

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.8%15 of 20×0.86

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.89 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 21 '26 · confirmed	2.89	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	2.88	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 22 '26 · confirmed	3.18	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod