How often does Clearwater Paper move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CLWNYSEPaperboard Mills

Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

13.40

−0.25 · −1.85%

Regular session15:20 ET

Open13.63Volume364,284Mkt cap$220.3MP/E103.05EPS0.13

Day13.40 – 13.630%52-wk11.73 – 23.5914%

CLW

Clearwater Paper Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

after close · in 106 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−28.77%

vs ±15.9% implied · ×1.81

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 26 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

7hGPK · supplierGraphic Packaging posts Q3 net sales $2,192 million, net income $22 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.72%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

136 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

CLW weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Clearwater Paper (CLW) is expected to report on Feb 17 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.7%
avg realized: ±15.0%

Nov 4 '24Nov 4 '24confirmed±14.5%▲+11.10%×0.77

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±11.8%▲+7.40%×0.63

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±10.8%▼−18.31%×1.70

Oct 28 '25Oct 28 '25confirmed±18.3%▼−8.54%×0.47

Feb 18 '26Feb 18 '26confirmed±12.0%▼−9.33%×0.78

Q1 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±30.2%▼−13.20%×0.44

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed±12.5%▲+23.42%×1.87

Q3 FY26Oct 26 '26confirmed±15.9%▼−28.77%×1.81

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q3 FY26±15.9%▼−28.77%×1.81

Q2 FY26±12.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.00OI · 5 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

388−7%Nov 2017d0.133,088−12%0.13

70+180%Dec 1845d0.20353+35200%0.20

140+28%Jan 1573d0.019,782+213%0.01

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

0—Mar 19136d253—

152+794%Apr 16164d0.111,361+414%0.11

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d388−7%3,088−12%0.13

Dec 1845d70+180%353+35200%0.20

Jan 1573d140+28%9,782+213%0.01

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−0.42%as filednet margin · revenue +2.69% QoQ · −3.53% YoY

Revenue$385M+2.69%

Gross profit$21M5.51%+303.85%

Operating income$3M0.65%+110.46%

Pre-tax income−$5M+85.05%

Net income−$2M−0.42%+92.56%

Cost of revenue$364M−5.58%

Operating expenses$19M+37.50%

Tax−$3M+66.28%

Other expense−$7M−12.90%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×2.01· ±4.1% vs ±2.0% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±4.1%10 of 24×2.01

GDPgross domestic product±3.0%5 of 19×1.46

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%6 of 19×1.09

NFPjobs report±2.1%7 of 10×1.06

PPIproducer prices±1.7%3 of 10×0.85

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%6 of 10×0.73

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%4 of 12×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.10 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 26 '26 · confirmed	-0.10	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	-1.33	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	-0.80	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod