What move does the options market price into Carlyle's report?

Implied ±8.1%, either direction.

CGNasdaqInvestment Advice

Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

42.79

+1.89 · +4.63%

post 43.73 +2.19%

Closed19:55 ET

Open41.99Volume6.2MMkt cap$15.7BP/E43.30EPS1.01Div yield3.27%

Day41.74 – 43.73100%52-wk35.41 – 65.9127%

Carlyle Group Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.1%implied · straddle

37.5944.21

spot 40.90exp Nov 20ATM strike 40ATM straddle 3.90IV 55%

Nov 3 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Today

after close

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.58%

vs ±7.8% implied · ×0.20

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3hAMZN · supplierKyndryl Uses Agentic AI to Accelerate Enterprise Modernization with AWS
11hMSFT · supplierMicrosoft announces change to director slate for Annual Shareholders Meeting

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.25%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

586 managers

Top fund weight

0.30%

CG weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Carlyle (CG) reports on Nov 5 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±7.8%▼−1.58%×0.20

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±7.8%▼−1.58%×0.20

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 4 close

2.30OI · 4 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

14,784+2%Nov 2015d6,4290%

17,2870%Dec 1843d2.995,7910%2.99

12,1380%Jan 1571d0.5223,2360%0.52

1,854+2%Mar 19134d0.444,1890%0.44

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d14,784+2%6,4290%2.30

Dec 1843d17,2870%5,7910%2.99

Jan 1571d12,1380%23,2360%0.52

Mar 19134d1,854+2%4,1890%0.44

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±8.1%

Funds 3

MDY±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

20.22%as filednet margin · revenue +636.09% QoQ · −30.17% YoY

Revenue$1.1B+636.09%

Pre-tax income$274M+252.96%

Net income$225M20.22%+258.42%

Tax$49M+232.08%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.33· ±2.4% vs ±1.8% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.4%6 of 11×1.33

NFPjobs report±2.4%3 of 10×1.32

FOMCrate decision±2.3%12 of 24×1.30

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%4 of 11×1.00

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%12 of 20×0.84

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%9 of 20×0.77

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%4 of 12×0.54

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.37 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	0.37	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.37	—
Q3 FY25	—	0.00	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod