What move does the options market price into Certara's report?

Implied ±17.6%, either direction.

CERTNasdaqServices-Prepackaged Software

Certara, Inc. (CERT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

11.09

+0.22 · +2.02%

post 11.00 −0.81%

Closed17:51 ET

Open10.86Volume2.4MMkt cap$1.7BEPS-0.45

Day10.75 – 11.2649%52-wk4.45 – 11.7390%

CERT

Certara, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±17.6%implied · straddle

9.1313.05

spot 11.09exp Nov 20ATM strike 10ATM straddle 2.30IV 119%

Nov 4 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−4.65%

vs ±17.0% implied · ×0.27

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.43%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

238 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

CERT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Certara (CERT) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±17.0%▼−4.65%×0.27

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±17.0%▼−4.65%×0.27

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.00OI · 3 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

190%Nov 2016d5,5010%

17—Dec 1844d0.15117—0.15

140%Feb 19107d0.052980%0.05

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d190%5,5010%0.00

Dec 1844d17—117—0.15

Feb 19107d140%2980%0.05

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.6%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−59.26%as filednet margin · revenue −12.76% QoQ · +0.99% YoY

Revenue$93M−12.76%

Gross profit$58M62.34%−10.95%

Operating income−$196,000−0.21%+95.45%

Pre-tax income−$6M+19.58%

Net income−$55M−59.26%−530.72%

Cost of revenue$35M−15.61%

Operating expenses$58M−16.17%

Tax−$307,000−137.44%

Other expense−$6M−70.11%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.32· ±3.2% vs ±2.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.2%6 of 10×1.32

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.3%8 of 19×0.95

GDPgross domestic product±2.1%11 of 19×0.88

CPROFcorporate profits±1.9%7 of 12×0.81

FOMCrate decision±1.9%10 of 24×0.79

NFPjobs report±1.8%3 of 10×0.75

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%3 of 10×0.66

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.36 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.36	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.06	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod