How often does Arvinas move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ARVNNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

6.54

−0.88 · −11.86%

post 6.54 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open7.35Volume1.2MMkt cap$485.9MEPS-0.07

Day6.54 – 7.350%52-wk6.74 – 14.510%

ARVN

Arvinas, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 23

before open · in 110 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.72%

vs ±29.4% implied · ×0.19

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dPFE · customerPfizer names Cecile Guegan CFO; $1,300,000 base, $1,300,000 target incentive
2dNVS · customerBioArctic collaborator Novartis terminates agreement

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+11.62%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

199 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

ARVN weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Arvinas (ARVN) is expected to report on Feb 23 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±16.2%
avg realized: ±8.3%

Feb 11 '25Feb 11 '25confirmed±27.0%▼−6.80%×0.25

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±10.6%▼−24.84%×2.35

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±9.6%▼−15.51%×1.61

Nov 5 '25Nov 5 '25confirmed±13.3%▲+0.31%×0.02

Q1 FY26Feb 24 '26confirmed±22.1%▲+0.57%×0.03

May 12 '26May 12 '26confirmed±8.5%▼−0.93%×0.11

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±9.0%▲+11.66%×1.30

Q3 FY26Nov 3 '26confirmed±29.4%▼−5.72%×0.19

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q3 FY26±29.4%▼−5.72%×0.19

Q2 FY26±9.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.07OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1630%Nov 2015d0.062,960−2%0.06

121+163%Dec 1843d1.09111+217%1.09

3550%Jan 1571d0.172,148−4%0.17

report · Feb 23 · before open · est.

400%Apr 16162d584+16%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d1630%2,960−2%0.06

Dec 1843d121+163%111+217%1.09

Jan 1571d3550%2,148−4%0.17

report · Feb 23 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−10780.00%as filednet margin · revenue −99.80% QoQ · −98.81% YoY

Revenue$500,000−99.80%

Gross profit$500,000100.00%−99.80%

Operating income−$59M−11820.00%−136.01%

Pre-tax income−$54M−131.66%

Net income−$54M−10780.00%−131.82%

Cost of revenue$0—

Operating expenses$60M−30.37%

Tax$200,0000.00%

Other income$5M−1.82%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×0.88· ±2.6% vs ±2.9% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.6%12 of 24×0.88

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.4%8 of 20×0.85

PPIproducer prices±2.4%6 of 11×0.84

CPIconsumer prices±2.1%2 of 11×0.72

GDPgross domestic product±1.7%11 of 20×0.60

NFPjobs report±1.7%3 of 10×0.59

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%4 of 12×0.47

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.82 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 3 '26 · confirmed	-0.82	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	2.58	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 24 '26 · confirmed	-0.90	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod