APO as of Oct 31 · 10:23 ET

APONYSEInvestment Advice

Apollo Global Management, Inc. · Brief

Next report

3 days

Nov 3 · before openest.Q3 FY26

Earnings

Expected move

Inputs

±5.0%implied · report alone

110.04121.64

straddle ±5.4%

spot 115.84exp Nov 6ATM strike 116ATM straddle 7.38IV 57%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Implied vs realized

8 reportsHistory

2 of 6≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.7%
avg realized: ±2.5%

Feb 4 '25—▼−2.71%—

May 2 '25—▼−1.83%—

Aug 5 '25±4.5%▲+2.48%×0.55

Q3 FY25±4.7%▲+5.29%×1.12

Feb 9 '26±6.2%▲+0.69%×0.11

Q1 FY26±2.2%▼−2.91%×1.31

May 6 '26±4.5%▼−0.59%×0.13

Q2 FY26±6.0%▲+2.92%×0.49

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.0%▲+2.92%×0.49

May '26±4.5%▼−0.59%×0.13

Q1 FY26±2.2%▼−2.91%×1.31

Feb '26±6.2%▲+0.69%×0.11

Q3 FY25±4.7%▲+5.29%×1.12

Aug '25±4.5%▲+2.48%×0.55

2 older reports

May '25—▼−1.83%—

Feb '25—▼−2.71%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Bull & bear

Nov 3 report · est.

Bull2 of 3

3disclosed supplier and customer ties in SEC filingsSEC filings

11tracked funds holding APON-PORT · Aug 31 '26

Bear2

9 of 23of the largest reporting managers cut their stake in the latest quarter13F · Jun 30 '26

4 of 6recent reports where the move came in under the options implied rangeEarnings history

AI captions · Sep 28 '26once per report · top 2 per case

Linked exposure

APO report session

Suppliers 1

HGVHilton Grand Vacations×0.45

Customers 1

ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance×0.22

× = co-movement · max 501dSource: SEC filings · market data

Latest changes

30 daysAll changes

Oct 21impliedImplied move: ±6.9% into Nov 3 earnings (Oct 21 close).Source

Your note

privateThesis 0 · Decisions 0 · Observations 0

No thesis.