How often does AAR move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AIRNYSEAircraft & Parts

AAR Corp (AIR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

100.09

−4.43 · −4.24%

post 98.34 −1.75%

Closed18:37 ET

Open103.56Volume361,696Mkt cap$4.0BP/E19.95EPS4.93

Day98.34 – 104.450%52-wk76.10 – 154.0029%

AIR

AAR Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 5

after close · in 65 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−7.25%

vs ±9.8% implied · ×0.74

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

27.90%

of AIR revenue · Global government and defense customers

customerAIR 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.04%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

408 managers

Top fund weight

2.68%

AIR weight · GLO

N-PORTJul 31 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

AAR (AIR) is expected to report on Jan 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.0%
avg realized: ±9.0%

Jan 7 '25Jan 7 '25confirmed±7.7%▲+8.65%×1.12

Mar 27 '25Mar 27 '25confirmed±7.8%▼−16.40%×2.11

Jul 16 '25Jul 16 '25confirmed±6.7%▲+13.65%×2.02

Sep 23 '25Sep 23 '25confirmed±10.4%▲+4.17%×0.40

Q2 FY26Jan 6 '26confirmed±8.5%▲+2.10%×0.25

Q3 FY26Mar 24 '26confirmed±9.3%▲+9.93%×1.07

Jul 21 '26Jul 21 '26confirmed±11.6%▼−9.76%×0.84

Q1 FY27Sep 28 '26confirmed±9.8%▼−7.25%×0.74

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q1 FY27±9.8%▼−7.25%×0.74

Jul '26±11.6%▼−9.76%×0.84

Q3 FY26±9.3%▲+9.93%×1.07

Q2 FY26±8.5%▲+2.10%×0.25

Sep '25±10.4%▲+4.17%×0.40

Jul '25±6.7%▲+13.65%×2.02

2 older reports

Mar '25±7.8%▼−16.40%×2.11

Jan '25±7.7%▲+8.65%×1.12

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.28OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

319−5%Nov 2019d0.271,188+6%0.27

4860%Dec 1847d0.67721+4%0.67

report · Jan 5 · after close · est.

870%Feb 19110d310+7%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d319−5%1,188+6%0.27

Dec 1847d4860%721+4%0.67

report · Jan 5 · after close · est.

Feb 19110d870%310+7%0.28

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

4.37%as filednet margin · revenue −1.08% QoQ · +24.12% YoY

Revenue

$918M−1.08% QoQ

Gross profit

$176M−1.18% QoQ

19.20% margin

Operating income

$69M−12.06% QoQ

7.55% margin

Pre-tax income

$55M−3.99% QoQ

Net income

$40M−20.91% QoQ

4.37% margin

Cost of revenue

$742M−1.26% QoQ

Operating expenses

$107M+7.43% QoQ

Other expense

$14M

Tax

$15M+118.57% QoQ

Revenue$918M−1.08%

Gross profit

$176M−1.18%

19.20% margin

Operating income

$69M−12.06%

7.55% margin

Pre-tax income

$55M−3.99%

Net income

$40M−20.91%

4.37% margin

Cost of revenue

$742M−1.26%

Operating expenses

$107M+7.43%

Other expense

$14M

Tax$15M+118.57%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 18:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.62· ±2.8% vs ±1.7% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.8%10 of 19×1.62

PPIproducer prices±2.3%5 of 10×1.35

CPROFcorporate profits±1.9%7 of 12×1.11

GDPgross domestic product±1.9%11 of 19×1.08

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%5 of 10×0.94

FOMCrate decision±1.6%13 of 24×0.91

NFPjobs report±1.5%5 of 10×0.86

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.00 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Sep 28 '26 · confirmed	1.00	—
Q4 FY26	—	1.30	—
Q3 FY26	Mar 24 '26 · confirmed	1.71	—
Q2 FY26	Jan 6 '26 · confirmed	0.90	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod