How often does AESI move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AESINYSECrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

AESI Holdings Inc. (AESI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

8.10

pre 7.99 −1.84%

Pre-market08:22 ETdelayed

Open8.04Volume4.0MMkt cap$823.0M

Day7.94 – 8.0450%52-wk7.64 – 20.133%

AESI

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 22

after close · in 110 days

est.

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.09%

vs ±18.1% implied · ×0.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 2 '26 · confirmedthin chain

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

82.40%

of AESI revenue · Undisclosed largest customers

customerAESI 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+22.84%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

281 managers

Top fund weight

0.04%

AESI weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

AESI (AESI) is expected to report on Feb 22 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.1%
avg realized: ±5.9%

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±9.4%▲+1.37%×0.15

Nov 3 '25Nov 3 '25confirmed±12.9%▼−15.89%×1.23

Feb 23 '26Feb 23 '26confirmed±13.7%▼−5.73%×0.42

Apr 1 '26Apr 1 '26confirmed±10.7%▼−7.01%×0.65

Apr 6 '26Apr 6 '26confirmed±9.4%▼−8.15%×0.86

May 4 '26May 4 '26confirmed±9.1%▲+8.28%×0.91

Aug 3 '26Aug 3 '26confirmed±13.4%0.00%×0.00

Nov 2 '26Nov 2 '26confirmed±18.1%thin chain▼−1.09%×0.06

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Nov '26±18.1%▼−1.09%×0.06

Aug '26±13.4%0.00%×0.00

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.22OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5720%Nov 2016d1.075360%1.07

394+3%Dec 1844d0.049,5970%0.04

7900%Jan 1572d0.135,8860%0.13

report · Feb 22 · after close · est.

2830%Apr 16163d1,307+8%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d5720%5360%1.07

Dec 1844d394+3%9,5970%0.04

Jan 1572d7900%5,8860%0.13

report · Feb 22 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY23

44.02%as filednet margin · revenue +5.46% QoQ · +23.20% YoY

Revenue

$162M+5.46% QoQ

Gross profit

$89M+7.90% QoQ

54.92% margin

Operating income

$77M+3.83% QoQ

47.39% margin

Pre-tax income

$76M+8.05% QoQ

Net income

$71M+13.20% QoQ

44.02% margin

Cost of revenue

$64M+1.52% QoQ

Operating expenses

$22M+26.98% QoQ

SG&A $12M

Depreciation $9M

Other expense

$403,000

Tax

$5M−34.17% QoQ

Revenue$162M+5.46%

Gross profit

$89M+7.90%

54.92% margin

Operating income

$77M+3.83%

47.39% margin

Pre-tax income

$76M+8.05%

Net income

$71M+13.20%

44.02% margin

Cost of revenue

$64M+1.52%

Operating expenses

$22M+26.98%

SG&A $12M

Depreciation $9M

Other expense

$403,000

Tax$5M−34.17%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '23 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 08:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.51· ±3.6% vs ±2.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.6%7 of 10×1.51

CPROFcorporate profits±2.8%7 of 12×1.18

FOMCrate decision±2.7%9 of 24×1.15

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.7%9 of 19×1.15

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%4 of 10×1.13

GDPgross domestic product±2.6%10 of 19×1.10

PPIproducer prices±2.4%3 of 10×1.02

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.67 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY23	—	0.67	—
Q1 FY23	—	0.03	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod