How often does ADTRAN move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ADTNNasdaqTelephone & Telegraph Apparatus

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

4.03

−0.10 · −2.31%

post 4.03 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open4.35Volume3.9MMkt cap$336.6MEPS-0.26

Day3.94 – 4.3623%52-wk4.03 – 19.980%

ADTN

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 25

before open · in 111 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−19.43%

vs ±16.2% implied · ×1.20

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+20.01%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

248 managers

Top fund weight

0.03%

ADTN weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

ADTRAN (ADTN) is expected to report on Feb 25 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.5%
avg realized: ±12.3%

May 27 '25May 27 '25confirmed±8.7%▲+1.49%×0.17

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±10.8%▼−14.57%×1.35

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±12.0%▼−24.16%×2.02

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±13.6%▼−7.30%×0.54

May 5 '26May 5 '26confirmed±13.8%▼−16.58%×1.20

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±16.6%▼−13.92%×0.84

Aug 3 '26Aug 3 '26confirmed±16.5%▼−1.13%×0.07

Q3 FY26Nov 3 '26confirmed±16.2%▼−19.43%×1.20

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±16.2%▼−19.43%×1.20

Aug '26±16.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 5 close

0.93OI · 4 expiries · Nov 5 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6,386−40%Nov 2014d6,871+2%

9,583+15872%Dec 1842d32.71293+190%32.71

380+91%Jan 1570d0.0217,774+131%0.02

197+35%Feb 19105d0.38519+13%0.38

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d6,386−40%6,871+2%0.93

Dec 1842d9,583+15872%293+190%32.71

Jan 1570d380+91%17,774+131%0.02

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−2.54%as filednet margin · revenue +0.01% QoQ · +0.62% YoY

Revenue$281M+0.01%

Gross profit$108M38.49%+4.12%

Operating income−$754,000−0.27%+92.51%

Pre-tax income−$5M+42.40%

Net income−$7M−2.54%+17.93%

Cost of revenue$173M−2.40%

Operating expenses$109M−4.42%

Tax$3M+227.79%

Other expense−$4M−276.61%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.20· ±3.2% vs ±2.7% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±3.2%16 of 24×1.20

PPIproducer prices±3.2%5 of 10×1.18

CPIconsumer prices±3.0%8 of 10×1.14

NFPjobs report±3.0%4 of 10×1.14

CPROFcorporate profits±2.9%5 of 12×1.07

GDPgross domestic product±2.6%8 of 19×0.96

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.3%7 of 19×0.87

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.10 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 3 '26 · confirmed	-0.10	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	-0.13	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	-0.01	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod