How often does Accel Entertainment move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ACELNYSEServices-Amusement & Recreation Services

Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

13.45

+1.59 · +13.41%

post 13.45 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open12.53Volume361,324Mkt cap$951.7MP/E17.47EPS0.77

Day12.53 – 13.6880%52-wk9.55 – 14.0088%

ACEL

Accel Entertainment, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Mar 2

after close · in 118 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 3

after close

confirmedQ3 FY26

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3hALL · supplierAllstate Reports Excellent Q3 2026 Results
12hFLUT · supplierFlutter posts Q3 net loss of $1,148 million, revenue $3,874 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.58%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

169 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

ACEL weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Accel Entertainment (ACEL) is expected to report on Mar 2 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.8%
avg realized: ±8.7%

Jul 30 '24Jul 30 '24confirmed±7.1%▲+10.11%×1.42

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±8.6%▼−8.03%×0.93

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±9.4%▲+4.74%×0.50

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±7.4%▼−15.25%×2.07

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±22.1%▲+2.11%×0.10

Q1 FY26Mar 3 '26confirmed±17.1%▲+17.98%×1.05

May 5 '26May 5 '26confirmed±17.2%▼−8.82%×0.51

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±21.4%▲+2.22%×0.10

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±21.4%▲+2.22%×0.10

May '26±17.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 1 expiry · Nov 2 close

0.06OI · 1 expiry · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

860%Jan 1572d1,3290%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Jan 1572d860%1,3290%0.06

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

5.67%as filednet margin · revenue −1.24% QoQ · +10.27% YoY

Revenue

$364M−1.24% QoQ

Gross profit

$363M−1.31% QoQ

99.86% margin

Operating income

$29M−10.15% QoQ

7.92% margin

Pre-tax income

$26M+40.46% QoQ

Net income

$21M+64.74% QoQ

5.67% margin

Cost of revenue

$499,000+86.19% QoQ

Operating expenses

$334M−0.46% QoQ

SG&A $64M

Depreciation $14M

Other operating $256M

Other expense

$3M

Tax

$5M−11.26% QoQ

Revenue$364M−1.24%

Gross profit

$363M−1.31%

99.86% margin

Operating income

$29M−10.15%

7.92% margin

Pre-tax income

$26M+40.46%

Net income

$21M+64.74%

5.67% margin

Cost of revenue

$499,000+86.19%

Operating expenses

$334M−0.46%

SG&A $64M

Depreciation $14M

Other operating $256M

Other expense

$3M

Tax$5M−11.26%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.28· ±1.8% vs ±1.4% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.8%13 of 24×1.28

NFPjobs report±1.6%3 of 10×1.19

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.6%8 of 19×1.16

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%9 of 19×0.89

PPIproducer prices±1.2%7 of 10×0.88

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%5 of 10×0.86

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%8 of 12×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.25 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	0.25	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	0.15	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 3 '26 · confirmed	0.17	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod