What move does the options market price into Airbnb's report?

Implied ±5.6%, either direction.

How often does Airbnb move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ABNBNasdaqServices-To Dwellings & Other Buildings

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

176.34

+9.38 · +5.62%

post 175.50 −0.47%

Closed19:34 ET

Open166.96Volume3.7MMkt cap$100.0BP/E39.35EPS4.46

Day166.96 – 179.8266%52-wk110.81 – 193.4578%

ABNB

Airbnb, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.9%·×0.81·cheap

166.45186.29

straddle ±6.0%

spot 176.37exp Nov 6ATM strike 177.5ATM straddle 12.52IV 120%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+17.43%

vs ±6.0% implied · ×2.89

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.96%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,315 managers

Top fund weight

1.49%

ABNB weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Airbnb (ABNB) reports on Nov 5 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.9%
avg realized: ±6.9%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±8.6%▼−8.66%×1.01

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±8.1%▲+14.45%×1.79

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±6.5%▲+1.01%×0.16

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±6.6%▼−8.02%×1.21

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±7.4%▲+0.29%×0.04

Feb 12 '26Feb 12 '26confirmed±6.8%▲+4.65%×0.68

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±5.5%▲+0.73%×0.13

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±6.0%▲+17.43%×2.89

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.0%▲+17.43%×2.89

Q1 FY26±5.5%▲+0.73%×0.13

Feb '26±6.8%▲+4.65%×0.68

Q3 FY25±7.4%▲+0.29%×0.04

Aug '25±6.6%▼−8.02%×1.21

May '25±6.5%▲+1.01%×0.16

2 older reports

Feb '25±8.1%▲+14.45%×1.79

Nov '24±8.6%▼−8.66%×1.01

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 4 close

1.11OI · 10 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,233+24%Nov 62d3,828+11%

1,332+10%Nov 139d0.851,576+3%0.85

6,739+2%Nov 2016d0.788,645+2%0.78

589+12%Nov 2723d2.422430%2.42

27+200%Dec 430d0.22123+193%0.22

5 later expiries

78+44%Dec 1137d5.2015+7%5.20

21,997+1%Dec 1844d1.4515,1660%1.45

44,2270%Jan 1572d1.1040,1240%1.10

5,8860%Mar 19135d1.175,0100%1.17

2,100+3%Apr 16163d1.161,806+1%1.16

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d4,233+24%3,828+11%1.11

Nov 139d1,332+10%1,576+3%0.85

Nov 2016d6,739+2%8,645+2%0.78

Nov 2723d589+12%2430%2.42

Dec 430d27+200%123+193%0.22

5 later expiries

Dec 1137d78+44%15+7%5.20

Dec 1844d21,997+1%15,1660%1.45

Jan 1572d44,2270%40,1240%1.10

Mar 19135d5,8860%5,0100%1.17

Apr 16163d2,100+3%1,806+1%1.16

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±6.0%

Funds 4

XLY±0.1%

FTC±0.0%

QQQ±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

22.62%as filednet margin · revenue +34.73% QoQ · +16.54% YoY

Revenue

$3.6B+34.73% QoQ

Gross profit

$3.0B+41.87% QoQ

82.46% margin

Operating income

$758M+781.40% QoQ

21.01% margin

Pre-tax income

$897M+219.22% QoQ

Net income

$816M+410.00% QoQ

22.62% margin

Cost of revenue

$633M+8.95% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.2B+10.24% QoQ

Marketing $875M

R&D $672M

Other operating $361M

Other operating $309M

Tax

$81M−33.06% QoQ

Other income

$139M−28.72% QoQ

Revenue$3.6B+34.73%

Gross profit

$3.0B+41.87%

82.46% margin

Operating income

$758M+781.40%

21.01% margin

Pre-tax income

$897M+219.22%

Net income

$816M+410.00%

22.62% margin

Cost of revenue

$633M+8.95%

Operating expenses

$2.2B+10.24%

Marketing $875M

R&D $672M

Other operating $361M

Other income$139M−28.72%

Tax$81M−33.06%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.63· ±2.6% vs ±1.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.6%6 of 10×1.63

PPIproducer prices±2.2%5 of 11×1.42

FOMCrate decision±1.4%12 of 24×0.91

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%5 of 12×0.88

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%7 of 11×0.86

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%8 of 20×0.85

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%11 of 20×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.37 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	1.37	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	0.26	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	2.21	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod