AANYSEPrimary Production of Aluminum

Alcoa Corp (AA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

39.16

−0.73 · −1.84%

post 39.08 −0.20%

Closed16:35 ET

Open39.50Volume3.6MMkt cap$10.3BP/E6.75EPS5.79Div yield1.02%

Day38.64 – 39.7540%52-wk34.85 – 84.009%

Alcoa Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 21

after close · in 82 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.55%

vs ±4.2% implied · ×0.61

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 15 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

716 managers

Top fund weight

0.38%

AA weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Alcoa (AA) is expected to report on Jan 21 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q3 FY26Oct 15 '26confirmed±4.2%▲+2.55%×0.61

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q3 FY26±4.2%▲+2.55%×0.61

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.22OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

3,543+12%

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

13.01%as filednet margin · revenue −6.61% QoQ · +23.67% YoY

Revenue

$3.7B−6.61% QoQ

Gross profit

$882M−11.71% QoQ

23.81% margin

Operating income

$583M−18.80% QoQ

15.74% margin

Pre-tax income

$573M+18.88% QoQ

Net income

$482M+17.85% QoQ

13.01% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B−4.89% QoQ

Operating expenses

$299M+6.41% QoQ

Depreciation $176M

SG&A $97M

R&D $8M

Other operating $18M

Other expense

$10M

Tax

$91M+24.66% QoQ

Revenue$3.7B−6.61%

Gross profit

$882M−11.71%

23.81% margin

Operating income

$583M−18.80%

15.74% margin

Pre-tax income

$573M+18.88%

Net income

$482M+17.85%

13.01% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B−4.89%

Operating expenses

$299M+6.41%

Depreciation $176M

SG&A $97M

R&D $8M

Other expense

$10M

Tax$91M+24.66%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.29· ±3.2% vs ±2.5% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.2%4 of 11×1.29

NFPjobs report±2.9%6 of 10×1.18

PPIproducer prices±2.7%3 of 11×1.09

FOMCrate decision±2.4%9 of 24×0.96

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%8 of 19×0.91

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%10 of 19×0.83

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%7 of 12×0.79

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.81 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 15 '26 · confirmed	1.81	—
Q2 FY26	—	1.53	—
Q1 FY26	—	1.60	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod