PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. · Brief

Next report

89 days

Jan 28 · after closeest.Q4 FY26

Earnings

Expected move

Inputs

±15.0%implied · straddle

53.4972.35

spot 62.92exp Feb 19ATM strike 65ATM straddle 11.10IV 39%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Implied vs realized

8 reportsHistory

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.4%
avg realized: ±9.2%

Jan 30 '25±5.6%▼−8.82%×1.59

Apr 22 '25±8.3%▼−2.76%×0.33

Jul 22 '25±5.6%▼−7.38%×1.31

Oct 21 '25±7.2%▲+7.16%×0.99

Jan 29 '26±6.6%▼−33.25%×5.05

Q1 FY26±8.0%▼−0.47%×0.06

Q2 FY26±8.6%▼−11.82%×1.38

Oct 29 '26±9.0%▼−2.31%×0.26

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Oct '26±9.0%▼−2.31%×0.26

Q2 FY26±8.6%▼−11.82%×1.38

Q1 FY26±8.0%▼−0.47%×0.06

Jan '26±6.6%▼−33.25%×5.05

Oct '25±7.2%▲+7.16%×0.99

Jul '25±5.6%▼−7.38%×1.31

2 older reports

Apr '25±8.3%▼−2.76%×0.33

Jan '25±5.6%▼−8.82%×1.59

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Bull & bear

Jan 28 report · est.

—

Linked exposure

PFSI report session

Customers 1

PMTPennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust×0.42

× = co-movement · max 500dSource: SEC filings · market data

Latest changes

30 daysAll changes

Oct 29impliedImplied move: ±9.0% into Oct 29 earnings (Oct 29 close).Source

Oct 298-KMaterial agreement: Amended Spector Agreement (amended employment agreement) with David A. Spector.Source

Oct 20impliedImplied move: ±9.7% into Nov 2 earnings (Oct 20 close).Source

Your note

privateThesis 0 · Decisions 0 · Observations 0

No thesis.